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      被誤解千年的的淝水之戰

      發布時間:2017-11-30  來源:悠悠千古事 點擊次數:

        八萬將士擊潰百萬之眾,以少勝多、以一當十的威風總是讓人愉悅,淝水之戰也因而聞名于世。可憐英雄一世的秦王苻堅,就只剩下風聲鶴唳、草木皆兵的慌張與膽怯了。這有些像文學作品中的主人公,或是影視劇里的男女主角,好就好的徹底,壞就壞的沒邊,頗具概念化和形象化。正如人的復雜內心,戰場上短兵相接、兵戈相向的真實景象,也并不就是漫畫中定格的畫面,總是一副表情、一個動作。也就是說,傳奇和真實總是有差距的。

        誠然,淝水之戰的著名,并不僅僅體現在東晉以少勝多、以弱勝強上。更重要的,它還對當時的政治格局產生了很大影響:一方面,它讓東晉度過了一次亡國危機,得以延續半個世紀的安寧;另一方面,它也讓剛剛趨于統一的北方,再次陷入列強紛爭的境地,讓強極一時的前秦帝國走向了敗亡,成為五胡時期北方政治重新洗牌的催化劑。甚至還可以說,它將中國南北朝對峙的局面推遲了半個多世紀,意義著實不小。然而就戰爭本身而言,它并沒有人們想象的那么夸張。

        事實上,東晉對前秦的這次進攻,是完全沒有取勝把握的。苻堅來攻,“都下震恐”,連大將軍桓沖都發出“天下事已可知,吾其左衽矣”(《通鑒》)的慨嘆。要說能夠泰然處之的,也只有宰相謝安一人。前方戰事吃緊,謝安卻在做著“圍棋賭別墅”的游戲,如此淡定的風范,也被世人傳為美談,“天下蒼生望謝安”的至高美譽,更增添了他的傳奇色彩。我不否認謝安的淡定,也很佩服他的這份淡定。然而當時情形,他除了淡定,還能怎樣?就像等待上級檢查工作的領導坐在里屋斗地主一樣,他斗的不是地主,是緊張。謝安下棋,可以說是鎮定,也可以說是讓自己鎮定的一種方式,更是內心博弈一種外在表現,其內心的焦慮別人是無法體會的。他別無選擇,只能淡定,這樣才能穩定軍心,一個喜歡談玄論經的瀟灑宰相,總不能表現出火急火燎的樣子。而當他聽到戰勝的消息后,大喜過望,以至于形體動作跟不上歡暢的節奏,“不覺屐齒之折”(《晉書》),木屐都給磕斷了。這或許才是他內心最真實的反映。

        此戰雙方的力量對比,也并不就是1比10那么簡單。一萬人狠揍一個人,上手的也就是前面幾個,打成什么樣后面的人根本就看不見。也就是說,這場戰場并沒有全面鋪開,真正一線作戰的人并不多。苻堅的百萬大軍是怎么來的,咱們可以算一算:其弟苻融和冠軍將軍慕容垂,率領“步騎二十五萬為前鋒”,算是先頭部隊,苻堅親率步兵六十余萬,騎兵二十七萬,總數超過了百萬。然而這時問題就出現了,如此龐大的軍隊,從各個方向向前線匯攏,“前后千里,旗鼓相望”,威風倒是威風,卻造成隊伍過于冗長,以至于“堅至項城,涼州之兵始達咸陽”,苻堅到河南了,馬上短兵相接,涼州的部隊才剛開拔,還沒走出關中。

        其實真正投入一線與東晉作戰的,也就是苻融和慕容垂的先遣部隊,二十多萬。而淝水敗后,“諸軍悉潰,惟慕容垂一軍獨全”(《晉書》),可見這其中還有一大部分軍隊是游而不擊的,這樣真正作戰的人數就更少。況且,當時的先遣部隊又分布在了兩個戰場,衛將軍梁成帥眾五萬“屯于洛澗(今安徽淮南市東淮河支流洛河),柵淮以遏東兵”,被劉牢之的5000兵牽扯住。苻融則圍攻壽陽。而后苻堅“留大軍于項城,引輕騎八千,兼道就融于壽陽”(《通鑒》),也就是說,當時苻堅的大部隊仍在河南的項城。而東晉雖有8萬人,主力卻是北府兵,都是能征慣戰的驍勇。加上東晉抱有死戰之心,就像兩個人打架,一方急了眼,另一方盡管身高力壯,也決然占不到什么便宜。并且東晉主場作戰,占盡樂地利優勢。所以,雙方當時在兵力對比上,也并不是特別懸殊,誰勝誰敗都很正常。

        宰相王猛臨終前留下遺言,勸苻堅“勿以晉為圖”(《通鑒》),不要輕易領兵南下,而苻堅沒聽,這也成為苻堅冒進的又一佐證。然而得出這種結論,也是建立在淝水失敗的結果上,就像而今地震頻發,那些所謂的地震專家,總是在地震之后做出迅速的驚人預測一樣,是事后諸葛亮。在路衛兵看來,苻堅并沒有不聽王猛的話,王猛死是公元375年,苻堅出兵東晉是383年,期間相隔了8年,苻堅并沒有南下攻晉,足見王猛的話苻堅還是聽進去了。而8年的時間,足以發生任何不可想象的巨大變化。事實上,南北雙方的軍事實力也已悄然變化,向有利于北方的方向發展。(悠悠千古事www.bjzhmgsls.com)更為關鍵的是,當時的前秦,“民戶殷富,四方略定。東極滄海西并龜茲。南苞襄陽北盡沙漠”,從經濟實力和軍事實力上,都已經具備了統一的基礎,而“唯建業一隅未能伏”(《高僧傳》),不能不說是個天大的遺憾。苻堅也多次表達過這種遺憾,比如在一次郊游時,苻堅就說,“自吾承業,垂三十載,四方略定,唯東南一隅,未沾王化”(《通鑒》),沒滅東晉已是他一塊心病,連玩都玩不下去了,不打行嗎!

        不光是王猛,苻堅攻晉,朝中大多數人是反對的。理由大概分為這么幾個:一是在雙方實力上,東晉雖然稍弱,但在傳統上屬于中華正朔,并且“君臣輯睦,內外同心”,也不是四肢無力一推就倒,況且東晉還有謝安、桓沖等“江表偉人”,不占人和;二是,北方軍隊不適應南方濕熱的環境,東晉還有長江天險作為天然屏障,不占地利;三是,前秦多年征戰,“數戰兵疲,民有畏敵之心”,需要休養;四是,流年不利,命犯太歲,不占天時,這個當然是迷信說法了,不過古人大多迷信,所以這個還算一個很重要的反駁依據。而慕容垂等人則說,“弱并于強,小并于大,此理勢自然”,主張打。眾說紛紜,各抒己見,討論是永遠不會出結果的,所以苻堅只有“內斷于心”(《通鑒》),自己來做決定了。

        其實不管當時慕容垂出于何種居心,他說的話是有道理的。如果有十足的把握,苻堅也不會和群臣商量了不是?歷史上有哪一場戰爭是必勝的?苻堅“強兵百萬,資仗如山”,如果換成東晉,也早就北定中原了。就是沒這份實力,東晉仍是屢次北伐,你可以打來,我為什么就不能打過去?苻堅“每思桓溫之寇也,江東不可不滅”(《通鑒》),那也是恨得牙根癢癢的。降服東晉,應該是苻堅人生的終極目標,這是一個帝王的氣魄所在。東晉北伐,每每鎩羽而歸,但雄心可鑒,也是一種追求,是政治的活力,是一種希望所在。苻堅“銳意欲取江東,寢不能旦”,想得都睡不著覺了,如果還要畏首畏尾,我看這皇帝不當也罷。

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